10 Best Content Production for December 2025
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Market Overview & Selection Criteria
The entertainment and media sector has undergone significant transformation over the past 18 months, with streaming platforms, gaming ecosystems, and traditional content producers navigating shifting consumer preferences and evolving monetization strategies. This curated watchlist focuses on companies trading at compelling valuations relative to their intrinsic value, as calculated through ValueSense's proprietary fundamental analysis tools.
Our selection methodology prioritizes companies demonstrating strong free cash flow generation, reasonable debt levels, and meaningful growth catalysts. We've identified 10 stocks spanning streaming services, gaming platforms, music publishing, sports entertainment, and travel content—each offering distinct risk-reward profiles for diversified portfolio construction. These selections represent opportunities where market prices may not fully reflect underlying business quality and growth potential.
Featured Stock Analysis
Stock #1: Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $458.9B |
| Quality Rating | 8.0 |
| Intrinsic Value | $88.6 |
| 1Y Return | -87.9% |
| Revenue | $43.4B |
| Free Cash Flow | $8,967.0M |
| Revenue Growth | 15.5% |
| FCF margin | 20.7% |
| Gross margin | 48.1% |
| ROIC | 30.5% |
| Total Debt to Equity | 61.9% |
Investment Thesis
Netflix remains the dominant global streaming platform with a $458.9B market capitalization and demonstrated pricing power in an increasingly competitive landscape. The company's Quality Rating of 8.0—the highest among our featured stocks—reflects exceptional operational efficiency and capital returns. With $43.4B in annual revenue and a robust 20.7% free cash flow margin, Netflix generates substantial cash returns to shareholders while maintaining industry-leading content investment capabilities. The platform's intrinsic value of $88.6 suggests meaningful upside potential from current trading levels, particularly as the company continues to monetize its massive subscriber base through advertising tiers and crackdown on password sharing.
Netflix's 15.5% revenue growth and 30.5% return on invested capital demonstrate the platform's ability to scale profitably despite market saturation concerns. The company's gross margin of 48.1% reflects pricing discipline and operational leverage in content distribution. While the 1-year return of -87.9% reflects recent market volatility, this pullback may present an attractive entry point for long-term investors seeking exposure to the streaming revolution.
Key Catalysts
- Continued advertising tier adoption and ARPU expansion
- International market penetration and subscriber growth
- Content investment efficiency improvements
- Password sharing monetization initiatives
- Potential strategic partnerships or acquisitions
Risk Factors
- Elevated debt-to-equity ratio of 61.9% requires monitoring
- Intense competition from Disney+, Amazon Prime, and emerging platforms
- Content cost inflation and licensing challenges
- Subscriber growth saturation in developed markets
- Regulatory scrutiny on market dominance
Stock #2: The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $188.7B |
| Quality Rating | 6.4 |
| Intrinsic Value | $80.8 |
| 1Y Return | -10.7% |
| Revenue | $94.4B |
| Free Cash Flow | $12.0B |
| Revenue Growth | 3.3% |
| FCF margin | 12.7% |
| Gross margin | 36.3% |
| ROIC | 13.9% |
| Total Debt to Equity | 36.7% |
Investment Thesis
Disney's $188.7B market capitalization encompasses one of the world's most valuable media and entertainment portfolios, spanning streaming, theatrical releases, theme parks, and consumer products. With a Quality Rating of 6.4 and intrinsic value of $80.8, Disney presents a compelling value opportunity for investors seeking exposure to diversified entertainment revenue streams. The company generated $94.4B in revenue with a 12.7% free cash flow margin, demonstrating the cash-generative nature of its business model despite ongoing streaming investments.
Disney's 36.3% gross margin reflects the premium pricing power of its iconic brands and content libraries. The 3.3% revenue growth rate, while modest, masks significant operational improvements in streaming profitability and theme park pricing optimization. The company's 13.9% return on invested capital indicates efficient capital deployment across its diverse business segments. With a 1-year return of -10.7%, Disney stock has underperformed the broader market, potentially creating an attractive entry point for value-oriented investors.
Key Catalysts
- Disney+ profitability inflection and subscriber monetization
- Theme park pricing power and attendance recovery
- Theatrical release slate and franchise performance
- ESPN+ integration and sports streaming expansion
- Cost reduction initiatives and operational efficiency gains
Risk Factors
- Streaming segment profitability remains uncertain
- Cord-cutting acceleration threatens traditional media revenue
- High debt-to-equity ratio of 36.7% limits financial flexibility
- Competitive pressure from Netflix, Amazon, and Apple
- Regulatory challenges regarding market concentration
Stock #3: Roblox Corporation (RBLX)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $66.5B |
| Quality Rating | 6.3 |
| Intrinsic Value | $26.2 |
| 1Y Return | 89.6% |
| Revenue | $4,463.7M |
| Free Cash Flow | $1,310.0M |
| Revenue Growth | 32.7% |
| FCF margin | 29.3% |
| Gross margin | 66.9% |
| ROIC | (57.4%) |
| Total Debt to Equity | 158.3% |
Investment Thesis
Roblox represents a high-growth gaming and metaverse platform with a $66.5B market capitalization and exceptional revenue expansion of 32.7% year-over-year. The platform's Quality Rating of 6.3 reflects solid operational metrics, with a remarkable 66.9% gross margin demonstrating the economics of user-generated content platforms. Roblox generated $4.46B in revenue with a 29.3% free cash flow margin, showcasing the platform's ability to convert user engagement into cash generation. The intrinsic value of $26.2 suggests potential downside risk at current valuations, warranting careful position sizing.
The platform's 89.6% 1-year return reflects investor enthusiasm for gaming and metaverse exposure, though this appreciation has outpaced fundamental improvements. Roblox's business model—monetizing user-created experiences and virtual goods—positions the company at the intersection of gaming, social media, and creator economics. The platform's ability to attract and retain developers and users will determine long-term value creation.
Key Catalysts
- Expansion of monetization tools for developers and creators
- International market penetration and localization efforts
- Enhanced mobile gaming experience and cross-platform integration
- Brand partnerships and enterprise adoption
- Metaverse infrastructure development and adoption
Risk Factors
- Negative return on invested capital of -57.4% indicates value destruction
- Extremely high debt-to-equity ratio of 158.3% presents financial risk
- Regulatory scrutiny on youth gaming and virtual economies
- User retention challenges and competitive threats from Fortnite and Minecraft
- Monetization model sustainability and creator compensation disputes
Stock #4: Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $59.7B |
| Quality Rating | 6.1 |
| Intrinsic Value | $24.7 |
| 1Y Return | 129.0% |
| Revenue | $37.9B |
| Free Cash Flow | $3,726.0M |
| Revenue Growth | (4.3%) |
| FCF margin | 9.8% |
| Gross margin | 53.7% |
| ROIC | (14.0%) |
| Total Debt to Equity | 90.5% |
Investment Thesis
Warner Bros. Discovery combines traditional media assets with streaming ambitions, creating a $59.7B market capitalization company with significant content libraries and production capabilities. The Quality Rating of 6.1 reflects the company's operational challenges amid industry transition, while the intrinsic value of $24.7 suggests potential undervaluation. The company generated $37.9B in revenue with a 9.8% free cash flow margin and 53.7% gross margin, demonstrating the profitability potential of content-driven businesses.
The company's 129% 1-year return reflects market optimism regarding streaming profitability and content monetization improvements. However, the -4.3% revenue decline and negative 14.0% return on invested capital indicate ongoing challenges in transitioning from traditional media to streaming-first operations. WBD's ability to successfully integrate HBO Max, Discovery+, and traditional cable networks while managing costs will determine shareholder value creation.
Key Catalysts
- Max streaming platform profitability and subscriber growth
- Content cost optimization and production efficiency
- Advertising revenue expansion across streaming platforms
- Strategic partnerships and licensing deals
- Debt reduction and balance sheet strengthening
Risk Factors
- Negative return on invested capital indicates value destruction
- High debt-to-equity ratio of 90.5% limits strategic flexibility
- Declining traditional media revenue and cord-cutting acceleration
- Intense competition from Netflix, Disney+, and Amazon Prime Video
- Integration challenges and organizational restructuring costs
Stock #5: TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $15.7B |
| Quality Rating | 6.9 |
| Intrinsic Value | $177.5 |
| 1Y Return | 40.5% |
| Revenue | $4,339.4M |
| Free Cash Flow | $1,012.3M |
| Revenue Growth | 56.3% |
| FCF margin | 23.3% |
| Gross margin | 45.5% |
| ROIC | 6.6% |
| Total Debt to Equity | 42.8% |
Investment Thesis
TKO Group Holdings represents a unique opportunity in sports entertainment, combining UFC and WWE operations under a single $15.7B market capitalization entity. The Quality Rating of 6.9 reflects solid operational execution, while the intrinsic value of $177.5 suggests significant undervaluation relative to current trading levels. The company generated $4.34B in revenue with exceptional 56.3% growth and a 23.3% free cash flow margin, demonstrating the cash-generative nature of live sports entertainment.
TKO's 45.5% gross margin reflects the premium pricing power of combat sports content and the leverage inherent in the business model. The 40.5% 1-year return reflects investor recognition of the company's growth potential and market consolidation benefits. The combination of UFC's global reach and WWE's entertainment-focused approach creates a diversified sports entertainment platform with multiple revenue streams including media rights, live events, and merchandise.
Key Catalysts
- International expansion of UFC and WWE events
- Media rights negotiations and streaming partnerships
- Merchandise and licensing revenue growth
- Operational synergies from UFC-WWE integration
- Talent acquisition and event innovation
Risk Factors
- Relatively low return on invested capital of 6.6% suggests capital efficiency challenges
- Debt-to-equity ratio of 42.8% requires monitoring
- Dependence on key talent and fighter retention
- Regulatory scrutiny on athlete compensation and safety
- Economic sensitivity of discretionary entertainment spending
Stock #6: Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $64.8B |
| Quality Rating | 6.5 |
| Intrinsic Value | $80.4 |
| 1Y Return | -16.3% |
| Revenue | $20.1B |
| Free Cash Flow | $3,443.0M |
| Revenue Growth | (0.0%) |
| FCF margin | 17.1% |
| Gross margin | 60.1% |
| ROIC | 26.3% |
| Total Debt to Equity | 680.0% |
Investment Thesis
Colgate-Palmolive represents a defensive consumer staples play within our entertainment and media watchlist, offering stability and dividend potential with a $64.8B market capitalization. The Quality Rating of 6.5 and intrinsic value of $80.4 suggest meaningful upside potential from current valuations. The company generated $20.1B in revenue with a 17.1% free cash flow margin and exceptional 60.1% gross margin, reflecting the pricing power of globally recognized consumer brands.
While revenue growth has stalled at 0.0%, Colgate's 26.3% return on invested capital demonstrates efficient capital deployment and strong operational execution. The company's 680.0% debt-to-equity ratio warrants careful analysis, though this reflects the company's capital structure strategy rather than financial distress. The -16.3% 1-year return presents an attractive entry point for value investors seeking exposure to defensive consumer staples with global distribution networks.
Key Catalysts
- Emerging market growth and pricing power
- Oral care innovation and premium product expansion
- Operational efficiency improvements and cost management
- Dividend sustainability and shareholder returns
- Strategic acquisitions and portfolio optimization
Risk Factors
- Extremely high debt-to-equity ratio of 680.0% requires careful monitoring
- Flat revenue growth indicates market maturity challenges
- Competitive pressure from private label and emerging brands
- Currency headwinds in international markets
- Changing consumer preferences toward natural and sustainable products
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Stock #7: Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $45.8B |
| Quality Rating | 6.2 |
| Intrinsic Value | $66.3 |
| 1Y Return | 8.2% |
| Revenue | CN¥59.8B |
| Free Cash Flow | CN¥0.0 |
| Revenue Growth | 17.5% |
| FCF margin | 0.0% |
| Gross margin | 80.7% |
| ROIC | 13.0% |
| Total Debt to Equity | 18.8% |
Investment Thesis
Trip.com represents exposure to the travel and tourism recovery with a $45.8B market capitalization and strong growth momentum. The Quality Rating of 6.2 and intrinsic value of $66.3 suggest meaningful upside potential, while the 8.2% 1-year return reflects steady appreciation. The company generated CN¥59.8B in revenue with an exceptional 80.7% gross margin, demonstrating the high-margin nature of online travel platforms. The 17.5% revenue growth rate indicates strong recovery from pandemic-related disruptions and expanding international travel demand.
Trip.com's business model—connecting travelers with accommodations, flights, and experiences—benefits from secular trends in travel recovery and digital adoption. The company's 13.0% return on invested capital and conservative 18.8% debt-to-equity ratio reflect prudent financial management. The platform's dominant position in Asian travel markets and expanding international presence position it well for continued growth.
Key Catalysts
- Continued travel recovery and international expansion
- Metaverse and virtual travel experiences development
- Strategic partnerships with airlines and hotel chains
- Technology innovation and user experience enhancement
- Emerging market penetration and localization
Risk Factors
- Zero free cash flow generation requires monitoring
- Geopolitical tensions and travel restrictions
- Competitive pressure from Booking.com and Expedia
- Currency fluctuations affecting international operations
- Economic sensitivity of discretionary travel spending
Stock #8: Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $14.7B |
| Quality Rating | 5.5 |
| Intrinsic Value | $30.6 |
| 1Y Return | -12.7% |
| Revenue | $6,707.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | $456.0M |
| Revenue Growth | 4.4% |
| FCF margin | 6.8% |
| Gross margin | 45.8% |
| ROIC | 12.4% |
| Total Debt to Equity | 32.1% |
Investment Thesis
Warner Music Group operates as a pure-play music publishing and recording company with a $14.7B market capitalization and exposure to the streaming music revolution. The Quality Rating of 5.5 reflects operational challenges, while the intrinsic value of $30.6 suggests potential undervaluation. The company generated $6.71B in revenue with a 45.8% gross margin, demonstrating the profitability of music intellectual property. The 4.4% revenue growth rate reflects the stabilization of streaming economics and the company's ability to monetize digital music consumption.
WMG's 6.8% free cash flow margin and 12.4% return on invested capital indicate solid operational execution despite industry disruption. The -12.7% 1-year return presents an attractive entry point for investors seeking exposure to music streaming growth and the enduring value of music catalogs. The company's diverse artist roster and publishing catalog provide multiple revenue streams and long-term value creation potential.
Key Catalysts
- Streaming revenue growth and ARPU expansion
- Music catalog acquisitions and strategic partnerships
- Emerging artist development and talent retention
- Synchronization licensing opportunities in film and television
- International market expansion and localization
Risk Factors
- Relatively low quality rating of 5.5 indicates operational challenges
- Dependence on streaming platform economics and royalty rates
- Artist retention and talent competition
- Regulatory scrutiny on music licensing and royalty structures
- Debt-to-equity ratio of 32.1% requires monitoring
Stock #9: Bilibili Inc. (BILI)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $11.2B |
| Quality Rating | 7.1 |
| Intrinsic Value | $20.5 |
| 1Y Return | 38.8% |
| Revenue | CN¥29.4B |
| Free Cash Flow | CN¥3,291.4M |
| Revenue Growth | 22.7% |
| FCF margin | 11.2% |
| Gross margin | 35.9% |
| ROIC | 8.9% |
| Total Debt to Equity | 69.4% |
Investment Thesis
Bilibili represents exposure to Chinese online entertainment and gaming with a $11.2B market capitalization and strong growth trajectory. The Quality Rating of 7.1 reflects solid operational execution, while the intrinsic value of $20.5 suggests potential downside risk at current valuations. The company generated CN¥29.4B in revenue with 22.7% growth and an exceptional 35.9% gross margin, demonstrating the profitability of user-generated content platforms. The 38.8% 1-year return reflects investor enthusiasm for Chinese tech and gaming exposure.
Bilibili's 11.2% free cash flow margin and 8.9% return on invested capital indicate improving operational efficiency as the platform scales. The company's 69.4% debt-to-equity ratio reflects typical leverage for high-growth technology companies. Bilibili's diversified revenue streams—including advertising, subscriptions, and virtual gifts—provide multiple paths to monetization and shareholder value creation.
Key Catalysts
- Expansion of gaming and esports offerings
- International market penetration and localization
- Advertising revenue growth and brand partnerships
- Subscription tier expansion and premium content
- Live streaming and creator monetization initiatives
Risk Factors
- Chinese regulatory environment and content restrictions
- Geopolitical tensions affecting technology companies
- Competitive pressure from Tencent, NetEase, and ByteDance
- Dependence on user-generated content quality and moderation
- Currency fluctuations and capital controls
Stock #10: Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation (AENT)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $334.7B |
| Quality Rating | 5.8 |
| Intrinsic Value | $0.0 |
| 1Y Return | 31.6% |
| Revenue | $1,088.4M |
| Free Cash Flow | $40.8M |
| Revenue Growth | (1.3%) |
| FCF margin | 3.7% |
| Gross margin | 13.3% |
| ROIC | 17.7% |
| Total Debt to Equity | 38.8% |
Investment Thesis
Alliance Entertainment represents a specialized play in entertainment distribution and logistics with a $334.7B market capitalization. The Quality Rating of 5.8 reflects operational challenges, while the zero intrinsic value calculation suggests significant valuation uncertainty. The company generated $1.09B in revenue with a 3.7% free cash flow margin and 13.3% gross margin, indicating thin margins typical of distribution businesses. The 31.6% 1-year return reflects market optimism regarding the company's operational turnaround and strategic positioning.
AENT's 17.7% return on invested capital and 38.8% debt-to-equity ratio reflect the capital-intensive nature of distribution operations. The -1.3% revenue decline indicates ongoing challenges in the physical media distribution market, though the company's diversification into digital distribution and logistics services provides growth opportunities. The company's role as a critical intermediary in entertainment supply chains positions it for potential consolidation or strategic partnerships.
Key Catalysts
- Digital distribution platform expansion
- Logistics and supply chain optimization
- Strategic partnerships with streaming platforms
- International market expansion
- Operational efficiency improvements and cost management
Risk Factors
- Low quality rating of 5.8 indicates operational challenges
- Declining physical media distribution market
- Zero intrinsic value suggests significant valuation uncertainty
- Competitive pressure from direct-to-consumer distribution models
- Dependence on entertainment industry health and consumer spending
Portfolio Diversification Insights
This 10-stock watchlist provides meaningful diversification across entertainment and media subsectors, each offering distinct risk-reward profiles and growth catalysts. The portfolio spans streaming platforms (Netflix, Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery), gaming and metaverse (Roblox, Bilibili), sports entertainment (TKO), music publishing (Warner Music Group), travel content (Trip.com), consumer staples (Colgate-Palmolive), and distribution (Alliance Entertainment).
Sector Allocation Analysis:
The portfolio demonstrates intentional diversification across multiple entertainment verticals. Streaming platforms represent 30% of the watchlist by count, reflecting the secular shift toward digital content consumption. Gaming and metaverse exposure comprises 20%, capturing high-growth opportunities in interactive entertainment. Sports entertainment, music publishing, and travel content each represent 10%, providing exposure to specialized entertainment segments with distinct economics and growth drivers.
Quality and Valuation Balance:
The watchlist balances high-quality, mature businesses (Netflix with 8.0 Quality Rating, TKO with 6.9) against higher-growth, higher-risk opportunities (Roblox with 32.7% revenue growth, TKO with 56.3% growth). This mix allows investors to construct portfolios aligned with their risk tolerance and investment horizon. The average Quality Rating of 6.4 reflects solid operational execution across the portfolio, while the range from 5.5 to 8.0 provides meaningful differentiation.
Geographic Diversification:
The portfolio includes significant international exposure through Trip.com (China travel), Bilibili (Chinese entertainment), and global platforms like Netflix and Disney. This geographic diversification reduces concentration risk and provides exposure to growth in emerging markets, particularly Asia-Pacific regions experiencing rapid digital adoption and rising consumer spending.
Market Timing & Entry Strategies
Valuation-Based Entry Points:
ValueSense's intrinsic value calculations provide objective entry points for disciplined investors. Netflix's intrinsic value of $88.6 suggests meaningful upside, while Roblox's $26.2 intrinsic value indicates potential downside risk at current valuations. Investors should consider dollar-cost averaging into positions where current prices trade at significant discounts to intrinsic value, reducing timing risk and allowing for position building across market cycles.
Sector Rotation Considerations:
Entertainment and media stocks demonstrate cyclical characteristics tied to consumer spending, advertising budgets, and discretionary income. During economic expansions, streaming platforms and gaming companies typically outperform as consumers increase entertainment spending. During contractions, defensive consumer staples like Colgate-Palmolive provide portfolio stability. Investors should consider rotating between growth-oriented and defensive positions based on macroeconomic conditions and market cycles.
Growth Catalyst Timing:
Each stock in this watchlist features specific catalysts that may drive near-term appreciation. Netflix's advertising tier expansion, Disney's streaming profitability inflection, and TKO's UFC-WWE integration represent near-term catalysts that could drive stock appreciation. Investors should monitor earnings releases, management guidance, and industry developments to identify optimal entry windows aligned with catalyst timing.
Position Sizing and Risk Management:
Given the range of quality ratings and financial metrics across this watchlist, position sizing should reflect individual stock risk profiles. Higher-quality stocks like Netflix and TKO warrant larger positions, while lower-quality stocks like AENT and WMG warrant smaller, more speculative allocations. Investors should establish stop-loss levels based on intrinsic value calculations and fundamental deterioration triggers.
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FAQ Section
Q1: How were these stocks selected for this watchlist?
These 10 stocks were selected using ValueSense's fundamental analysis tools, which evaluate companies across multiple dimensions including quality ratings, intrinsic value calculations, free cash flow generation, and return on invested capital. The selection prioritizes companies trading at compelling valuations relative to their intrinsic value, with particular emphasis on free cash flow generation and sustainable competitive advantages. The watchlist intentionally spans multiple entertainment subsectors to provide diversification across streaming, gaming, sports, music, and travel.
Q2: Which stock from this list offers the best risk-adjusted return potential?
Netflix emerges as the highest-quality opportunity with an 8.0 Quality Rating and strong 30.5% return on invested capital, though its $458.9B market capitalization reflects significant investor recognition. TKO Group Holdings presents an attractive risk-adjusted opportunity with a 6.9 Quality Rating, exceptional 56.3% revenue growth, and intrinsic value of $177.5 suggesting meaningful upside potential. For growth-oriented investors, TKO's combination of quality, growth, and valuation presents compelling risk-adjusted return potential.
Q3: Should I buy all these stocks or focus on a subset for portfolio diversification?
Portfolio construction should reflect your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and time horizon. Conservative investors should focus on higher-quality stocks like Netflix (8.0 rating), TKO (6.9 rating), and Trip.com (6.2 rating) with established business models and positive free cash flow. Growth-oriented investors may allocate to Roblox and Bilibili despite higher leverage and lower quality ratings, given their exceptional revenue growth rates. A balanced approach allocates 60% to quality stocks and 40% to growth opportunities, with position sizing reflecting individual risk profiles.
Q4: What are the biggest risks with these stock picks?
The primary risks vary by stock but include streaming competition (Netflix, Disney, WBD), high leverage (Roblox at 158.3% debt-to-equity, Colgate-Palmolive at 680.0%), negative returns on invested capital (Roblox at -57.4%, WBD at -14.0%), and regulatory uncertainty (Bilibili, Chinese tech exposure). Sector-wide risks include cord-cutting acceleration, advertising budget pressures, and economic sensitivity of discretionary entertainment spending. Investors should monitor these risk factors and adjust positions accordingly as circumstances evolve.
Q5: When is the best time to invest in these stocks?
ValueSense's intrinsic value calculations provide objective entry points independent of market timing. Stocks trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value (Netflix at $88.6, Disney at $80.8, TKO at $177.5) present attractive entry opportunities regardless of near-term market conditions. Dollar-cost averaging into positions over 3-6 months reduces timing risk and allows for position building across market cycles. Investors should also consider sector rotation based on macroeconomic conditions, with growth stocks favored during expansions and defensive stocks during contractions.