10 Best Undervalued Basic Materials Stocks for October 2025
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Market Overview & Selection Criteria
The current market environment is marked by volatility and sector rotation, with investors seeking resilient value opportunities amid global economic uncertainty. Our selection methodology focuses on undervalued stocks with strong intrinsic value, robust cash flow, and quality ratings, as identified by ValueSense’s proprietary analysis. Each pick is evaluated for financial health, sector leadership, and catalysts for future growth, ensuring a diversified watchlist across basic materials, mining, and industrials.
Featured Stock Analysis
Stock #1: Rio Tinto Group (RIO)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $111.6B |
| Quality Rating | 6.0 |
| Intrinsic Value | $108.1 |
| 1Y Return | 8.0% |
| Revenue | $107.9B |
| Free Cash Flow | $12.7B |
| Revenue Growth | (5.5%) |
| FCF margin | 11.8% |
| Gross margin | 27.7% |
| ROIC | 26.6% |
| Total Debt to Equity | 38.1% |
Investment Thesis
Rio Tinto Group stands out as a global leader in mining, with a market cap of $111.6B and a ValueSense quality rating of 6.0. Despite a recent revenue decline of 5.5%, the company maintains a solid free cash flow of $12.7B and a robust ROIC of 26.6%. Its intrinsic value is estimated at $108.1, suggesting potential upside relative to current market pricing. The company’s diversified portfolio across iron ore, copper, and aluminum positions it well to benefit from long-term infrastructure and electrification trends.
Key Catalysts
- Strong free cash flow generation supports dividends and reinvestment
- High ROIC and manageable debt (Total Debt to Equity: 38.1%)
- Exposure to critical minerals for global decarbonization
- Ongoing cost optimization and operational efficiency initiatives
Risk Factors
- Commodity price volatility impacting revenue and margins
- Regulatory and environmental risks in global mining operations
- Slower revenue growth (-5.5% YoY) may pressure future returns
Stock #2: BHP Group Limited (BHP)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $71.4B |
| Quality Rating | 6.3 |
| Intrinsic Value | $137.7 |
| 1Y Return | 1.2% |
| Revenue | $107.3B |
| Free Cash Flow | $20.7B |
| Revenue Growth | (10.1%) |
| FCF margin | 19.3% |
| Gross margin | 48.7% |
| ROIC | 28.5% |
| Total Debt to Equity | 46.9% |
Investment Thesis
BHP Group Limited, with a $71.4B market cap and a ValueSense quality rating of 6.3, is a diversified mining giant. The company’s intrinsic value is $137.7, and it boasts a free cash flow of $20.7B, reflecting strong operational efficiency. Despite a 10.1% revenue decline, BHP maintains a high FCF margin 19.3% and gross margin 48.7%, with a leading ROIC of 28.5%. Its broad exposure to iron ore, copper, and energy resources provides resilience and growth potential as global demand for raw materials continues.
Key Catalysts
- Industry-leading ROIC and gross margins
- Strong balance sheet and cash flow for shareholder returns
- Strategic investments in future-facing commodities (e.g., copper, nickel)
- Ongoing cost discipline and productivity improvements
Risk Factors
- Sensitivity to global commodity cycles
- High total debt to equity 46.9%
- Revenue contraction (-10.1% YoY) amid market headwinds
Stock #3: AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $39.5B |
| Quality Rating | 7.9 |
| Intrinsic Value | $96.1 |
| 1Y Return | 180.5% |
| Revenue | $7,649.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | $1,786.0M |
| Revenue Growth | 3.1% |
| FCF margin | 23.3% |
| Gross margin | 42.9% |
| ROIC | 20.3% |
| Total Debt to Equity | 24.9% |
Investment Thesis
AngloGold Ashanti Limited, a leading gold producer, has delivered a remarkable 1-year return of 180.5%, with a market cap of $39.5B and a ValueSense quality rating of 7.9—the highest among this group. The company’s intrinsic value is $96.1, and it demonstrates strong free cash flow $1,786M and a healthy FCF margin 23.3%. Revenue growth of 3.1% and a gross margin of 42.9% highlight operational strength, while a moderate debt profile (24.9% total debt to equity) supports financial flexibility.
Key Catalysts
- Exceptional recent performance and momentum
- High quality rating and operational efficiency
- Gold’s role as a hedge in uncertain markets
- Continued margin expansion and disciplined capital allocation
Risk Factors
- Exposure to gold price fluctuations
- Geopolitical and operational risks in mining jurisdictions
- Sustainability of outsized recent returns
Stock #4: Nucor Corporation (NUE)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $30.6B |
| Quality Rating | 5.8 |
| Intrinsic Value | $184.2 |
| 1Y Return | -13.6% |
| Revenue | $30.8B |
| Free Cash Flow | ($384.7M) |
| Revenue Growth | (5.8%) |
| FCF margin | (1.2%) |
| Gross margin | 10.4% |
| ROIC | 6.4% |
| Total Debt to Equity | 32.0% |
Investment Thesis
Nucor Corporation, with a $30.6B market cap and a ValueSense quality rating of 5.8, is a major player in steel production. The company’s intrinsic value is $184.2, but it has faced headwinds with a 13.6% 1-year return and negative free cash flow -$384.7M. Despite a revenue decline of 5.8%, Nucor maintains a manageable debt profile (32.0% total debt to equity) and a positive, albeit modest, gross margin 10.4%.
Key Catalysts
- Strong intrinsic value relative to market cap
- Resilient balance sheet and capital discipline
- Potential for cyclical recovery in steel demand
Risk Factors
- Negative free cash flow and declining revenue
- Cyclical exposure to construction and manufacturing sectors
- Lower gross and FCF margins compared to peers
Stock #5: ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $29.8B |
| Quality Rating | 6.2 |
| Intrinsic Value | $42.0 |
| 1Y Return | 62.6% |
| Revenue | $60.6B |
| Free Cash Flow | $904.0M |
| Revenue Growth | (24.5%) |
| FCF margin | 1.5% |
| Gross margin | 78.1% |
| ROIC | 4.7% |
| Total Debt to Equity | 24.3% |
Investment Thesis
ArcelorMittal S.A. is a global steel leader with a $29.8B market cap and a ValueSense quality rating of 6.2. The company’s intrinsic value is $42.0, and it has posted a strong 1-year return of 62.6%. Despite a significant revenue decline -24.5%, ArcelorMittal maintains a high gross margin 78.1% and positive free cash flow $904M. Its moderate debt profile (24.3% total debt to equity) and diversified operations support resilience.
Key Catalysts
- Strong recent stock performance
- High gross margin and operational leverage
- Global footprint and product diversification
Risk Factors
- Significant revenue contraction
- Exposure to global steel market volatility
- Modest FCF margin 1.5%
Stock #6: Nutrien Ltd. (NTR)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $27.5B |
| Quality Rating | 6.2 |
| Intrinsic Value | $59.6 |
| 1Y Return | 19.0% |
| Revenue | $25.8B |
| Free Cash Flow | $1,683.0M |
| Revenue Growth | (4.5%) |
| FCF margin | 6.5% |
| Gross margin | 29.4% |
| ROIC | 5.7% |
| Total Debt to Equity | 54.3% |
Investment Thesis
Nutrien Ltd., with a $27.5B market cap and a ValueSense quality rating of 6.2, is a leading provider of crop inputs and services. The company’s intrinsic value is $59.6, and it has delivered a 19.0% 1-year return. Nutrien’s free cash flow stands at $1,683M, with a 6.5% FCF margin and a solid gross margin 29.4%. Its moderate revenue decline -4.5% is offset by strong sector fundamentals and a focus on sustainable agriculture.
Key Catalysts
- Strong position in global agriculture supply chain
- Positive free cash flow and margin resilience
- Growing demand for fertilizers and crop solutions
Risk Factors
- Exposure to commodity price swings
- High total debt to equity 54.3%
- Modest revenue contraction
Stock #7: PPG Industries, Inc. (PPG)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $22.9B |
| Quality Rating | 5.5 |
| Intrinsic Value | $107.5 |
| 1Y Return | -21.6% |
| Revenue | $14.6B |
| Free Cash Flow | $807.0M |
| Revenue Growth | (19.2%) |
| FCF margin | 5.5% |
| Gross margin | 40.9% |
| ROIC | 8.1% |
| Total Debt to Equity | 102.6% |
Investment Thesis
PPG Industries, Inc., a specialty chemicals and coatings leader, has a $22.9B market cap and a ValueSense quality rating of 5.5. The company’s intrinsic value is $107.5, but it has faced a 21.6% decline in share price over the past year. With $807M in free cash flow and a 5.5% FCF margin, PPG maintains operational stability despite a 19.2% revenue decline. Its gross margin 40.9% and high debt (102.6% total debt to equity) are key factors to monitor.
Key Catalysts
- Strong brand and global market presence
- High gross margin in specialty chemicals
- Potential for cyclical recovery in industrial demand
Risk Factors
- High leverage and declining revenue
- Negative recent stock performance
- Sensitivity to raw material costs
Stock #8: POSCO Holdings Inc. (PKX)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $16.5B |
| Quality Rating | 5.6 |
| Intrinsic Value | $111.3 |
| 1Y Return | -20.0% |
| Revenue | â©71.0T |
| Free Cash Flow | (â©871.5B) |
| Revenue Growth | (4.4%) |
| FCF margin | (1.2%) |
| Gross margin | 31.1% |
| ROIC | 2.5% |
| Total Debt to Equity | N/A |
Investment Thesis
POSCO Holdings Inc., a major steel producer, has a $16.5B market cap and a ValueSense quality rating of 5.6. The company’s intrinsic value is $111.3, but it has experienced a 20.0% decline in share price over the past year. POSCO’s revenue is ₩71.0T, with negative free cash flow (₩871.5B) and a 31.1% gross margin. The company faces challenges with negative FCF margin -1.2% and a low ROIC 2.5%.
Key Catalysts
- Large scale and global reach in steel production
- Intrinsic value above current market cap
- Potential for turnaround with sector recovery
Risk Factors
- Negative free cash flow and low ROIC
- Lack of reported debt-to-equity data
- Exposure to cyclical steel demand
Stock #9: International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $16.0B |
| Quality Rating | 5.1 |
| Intrinsic Value | $74.0 |
| 1Y Return | -40.5% |
| Revenue | $11.3B |
| Free Cash Flow | $560.0M |
| Revenue Growth | (0.1%) |
| FCF margin | 5.0% |
| Gross margin | 33.7% |
| ROIC | 4.8% |
| Total Debt to Equity | 47.5% |
Investment Thesis
International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF) is a global leader in flavors and specialty ingredients, with a $16.0B market cap and a ValueSense quality rating of 5.1. The company’s intrinsic value is $74.0, but it has faced a 40.5% decline in share price over the past year. IFF’s revenue is $11.3B, with $560M in free cash flow and a 5.0% FCF margin. The company’s gross margin is 33.7%, with a moderate debt profile (47.5% total debt to equity).
Key Catalysts
- Leadership in specialty chemicals and ingredients
- Positive free cash flow and stable gross margin
- Potential for margin recovery and innovation-driven growth
Risk Factors
- Significant recent share price decline
- Flat revenue growth -0.1%
- Moderate leverage and industry competition
Stock #10: Dow Inc. (DOW)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $15.4B |
| Quality Rating | 4.8 |
| Intrinsic Value | $52.0 |
| 1Y Return | -57.2% |
| Revenue | $41.8B |
| Free Cash Flow | ($1,740.0M) |
| Revenue Growth | (2.8%) |
| FCF margin | (4.2%) |
| Gross margin | 7.8% |
| ROIC | (3.7%) |
| Total Debt to Equity | 97.4% |
Investment Thesis
Dow Inc., a major chemicals and materials company, has a $15.4B market cap and a ValueSense quality rating of 4.8. The company’s intrinsic value is $52.0, but it has experienced a 57.2% decline in share price over the past year. Dow’s revenue is $41.8B, but it faces negative free cash flow -$1,740M and a 7.8% gross margin. The company’s ROIC is negative -3.7%, and it has a high debt load (97.4% total debt to equity).
Key Catalysts
- Large scale and established market presence
- Intrinsic value above current market cap
- Potential for cyclical recovery in chemicals sector
Risk Factors
- Negative free cash flow and ROIC
- High leverage and declining share price
- Sensitivity to commodity and energy prices
Portfolio Diversification Insights
This watchlist offers broad sector diversification within the basic materials and industrials space, spanning mining, steel, agriculture, chemicals, and specialty ingredients. The inclusion of both commodity producers (e.g., Rio Tinto, BHP, AngloGold Ashanti) and value-added manufacturers (e.g., PPG, IFF) helps balance cyclical risk. Exposure to gold (AU) provides a potential hedge against market volatility, while agricultural (NTR) and specialty chemicals (IFF, DOW) add defensive characteristics. Quality ratings and financial metrics vary, supporting a blend of growth, value, and income-oriented strategies.
Market Timing & Entry Strategies
Given recent market volatility, timing entries into these stocks may benefit from a dollar-cost averaging approach or technical analysis to identify support levels. Investors should monitor sector trends, commodity prices, and macroeconomic indicators. Consider entering positions during market pullbacks or when individual stocks approach their intrinsic value estimates, as highlighted by ValueSense’s proprietary analysis.
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FAQ Section
Q1: How were these stocks selected?
These stocks were chosen using ValueSense’s intrinsic value screening, focusing on companies with strong financial metrics, quality ratings, and sector leadership within the basic materials and industrials sectors.
Q2: What's the best stock from this list?
While AngloGold Ashanti (AU) currently has the highest 1-year return and quality rating, the best stock depends on individual investment goals, risk tolerance, and sector preferences.
Q3: Should I buy all these stocks or diversify?
Diversification is key to managing risk. This watchlist is designed to provide exposure across multiple sectors and industries, allowing investors to tailor allocations based on their own risk profile.
Q4: What are the biggest risks with these picks?
Major risks include commodity price volatility, sector cyclicality, operational challenges, and company-specific financial or regulatory issues. Each stock’s risk profile is detailed in its analysis above.
Q5: When is the best time to invest in these stocks?
Optimal entry points may occur during market corrections or when stocks trade near or below their intrinsic value. Monitoring sector trends and using a disciplined, phased approach can help manage timing risk.