John Paulson - Paulson & Co Portfolio in 2026: Top Holdings & Recent Changes
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John Paulson, the legendary hedge fund manager who famously profited from the 2008 financial crisis, continues to demonstrate his contrarian investment philosophy. His Q3 2025 portfolio reveals a highly concentrated $2.97 billion fund deployed across just 10 carefully selected positions, reflecting his signature high-conviction approach to value investing. The portfolio's recent moves—particularly a dramatic 115.77% addition to Bausch Health Companies and a strategic reduction in his largest holding—signal Paulson's evolving thesis on healthcare valuations and precious metals exposure.
Portfolio Overview: Ultra-Concentrated Excellence in Contrarian Bets
Portfolio Highlights (Q3 2025): - Market Value: $2,969.4M - Top 10 Holdings: 100.0% - Portfolio Size: 10 positions (-5 from previous quarter) - Average Holding Period: 27 quarters - Turnover: 50.0%
Paulson's portfolio concentration has reached an extreme level, with all capital deployed across just 10 positions. This represents a significant reduction from the previous quarter, indicating a deliberate shift toward maximum conviction investing. The 50% turnover rate suggests meaningful portfolio rebalancing, with Paulson actively reshaping his positions to reflect current market opportunities and risk assessments.
The portfolio's composition reveals a fascinating divergence from traditional hedge fund allocations. Rather than diversifying across multiple sectors and geographies, Paulson has doubled down on healthcare and precious metals—two sectors that many institutional investors have underweighted. This concentrated approach mirrors his most successful periods, when deep conviction in a specific thesis drove outsized returns. The 27-quarter average holding period demonstrates Paulson's patience with his positions, suggesting these aren't tactical trades but rather strategic bets on long-term value creation.
Top Holdings Analysis: Healthcare Transformation and Precious Metals Conviction
The portfolio is anchored by Madrigal Pharmaceuticals at 29.5%, though Paulson reduced this position by 8.71%, signaling a modest profit-taking move on what has been a strong performer. Perpetua Resources 22.0% remains unchanged, reflecting unwavering conviction in this precious metals play. The most dramatic move comes with Bausch Health Companies, which received a massive 115.77% addition to reach 15.4% of the portfolio—a clear signal that Paulson sees exceptional value in the healthcare sector's current valuations.
Agnico Eagle Mines 4.4% and the unlisted precious metals positions including NOVAGOLD RES INC 8.1%, INTERNATIONAL TOWER HILL MIN 3.9%, and TRILOGY METALS INC NEW 1.0% collectively represent approximately 37% of the portfolio, underscoring Paulson's significant bet on gold and mining equities. This allocation suggests he views precious metals as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty and currency debasement. Thryv Holdings 1.7% and Honeywell International 1.4% round out the portfolio, providing diversification within the concentrated framework.
The reduction in ACADIAN ASSET MANAGEMENT INC by 13.48% to 12.6% of the portfolio suggests Paulson is trimming exposure to asset management, possibly reflecting concerns about fee compression or market headwinds in the industry. This move, combined with the aggressive addition to Bausch Health, indicates a clear preference for direct healthcare exposure over financial services at current valuations.
What the Portfolio Reveals About Paulson's Current Strategy
Paulson's Q3 2025 positioning reveals several critical investment themes:
Healthcare Sector Conviction: The doubling down on Bausch Health, combined with maintaining Madrigal Pharmaceuticals as the largest position, demonstrates Paulson's belief that healthcare equities are significantly undervalued. This contrarian stance comes at a time when many investors have rotated away from healthcare into technology and artificial intelligence.
Precious Metals as Portfolio Anchor: With nearly 40% of capital deployed in gold and precious metals mining companies, Paulson is clearly positioning for either inflation concerns or geopolitical uncertainty. This allocation harks back to his crisis-investing roots, suggesting he may be anticipating market dislocations.
Extreme Concentration as Conviction Signal: The reduction from 15 positions to 10 positions, with all capital in the top 10 holdings, represents an almost reckless level of concentration by institutional standards. This suggests Paulson has identified what he believes are exceptional opportunities and is willing to take concentrated risk to capitalize on them.
Selective Profit-Taking: The 8.71% reduction in Madrigal Pharmaceuticals and 13.48% trim in Acadian Asset Management suggest Paulson is taking profits on positions that have appreciated, a disciplined approach to risk management within his concentrated framework.
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Portfolio Concentration Analysis
| Position | Value | % of Portfolio | Recent Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $874.9M | 29.5% | Reduce 8.71% |
| Perpetua Resources Corp. | $654.4M | 22.0% | No change |
| Bausch Health Companies Inc. | $456.4M | 15.4% | Add 115.77% |
| ACADIAN ASSET MANAGEMENT INC | $372.9M | 12.6% | Reduce 13.48% |
| NOVAGOLD RES INC | $239.7M | 8.1% | No change |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited | $132.1M | 4.4% | No change |
| INTERNATIONAL TOWER HILL MIN | $115.2M | 3.9% | No change |
| Thryv Holdings, Inc. | $51.6M | 1.7% | No change |
| Honeywell International Inc. | $42.1M | 1.4% | No change |
| TRILOGY METALS INC NEW | $30.1M | 1.0% | No change |
The concentration metrics reveal a portfolio operating at the extreme end of the risk spectrum. The top position alone represents nearly 30% of assets, while the top three positions account for 67% of the portfolio. This level of concentration would be considered reckless by most institutional risk management standards, yet it aligns perfectly with Paulson's historical approach during periods when he identifies exceptional opportunities.
The fact that 100% of the portfolio is represented by the top 10 holdings indicates zero diversification beyond these core positions. This is a deliberate choice, not a limitation of the fund's size. Paulson is essentially saying: "These are the only 10 investments I want to own at current market prices." The 50% turnover rate, while seemingly high, is actually moderate given the concentrated nature of the portfolio, suggesting these aren't frequent tactical trades but rather strategic repositioning around a core thesis.
Investment Lessons from John Paulson's Approach
Paulson's Q3 2025 portfolio demonstrates several timeless investment principles:
Conviction Requires Concentration: Paulson's willingness to deploy nearly 30% of his fund into a single position reflects deep conviction in his analysis. This challenges the modern portfolio theory emphasis on diversification, suggesting that when you truly understand a business and its valuation, concentration can be appropriate.
Contrarian Positioning Precedes Outperformance: By heavily weighting healthcare and precious metals at a time when most institutional capital is flowing to technology and artificial intelligence, Paulson is positioning for mean reversion. History suggests his contrarian bets often precede significant market rotations.
Patience Compounds Returns: The 27-quarter average holding period demonstrates that Paulson isn't trying to time the market or trade short-term inefficiencies. He identifies undervalued assets and holds them through cycles, allowing compounding to work in his favor.
Profit-Taking Maintains Discipline: Even within a concentrated portfolio, Paulson takes modest profits on appreciated positions (Madrigal down 8.71%, Acadian down 13.48%). This prevents any single position from becoming an outsized risk and locks in gains.
Sector Rotation Signals Market Views: The dramatic addition to Bausch Health and reduction in asset management positions signal Paulson's evolving view of which sectors offer the best risk-reward. These moves often precede broader market trends.
Crisis Mentality Drives Opportunity Identification: Paulson's heavy precious metals allocation suggests he's maintaining his crisis-investing mindset, positioning for potential market dislocations while others remain complacent.
Looking Ahead: What Comes Next?
With 100% of capital deployed and a 50% turnover rate, Paulson appears to be in an active repositioning phase. The dramatic addition to Bausch Health suggests he may continue building this position if valuations remain attractive. The maintenance of large precious metals positions indicates he's not abandoning his inflation and geopolitical hedges.
The reduction in portfolio size from 15 to 10 positions suggests Paulson may continue consolidating around his highest-conviction ideas. If healthcare valuations continue to compress or precious metals face headwinds, we could see further rebalancing. Conversely, if these sectors begin to outperform, Paulson's concentrated positioning could generate exceptional returns.
The fund's current positioning suggests Paulson is preparing for a market environment quite different from the recent past—one where healthcare and commodities outperform technology, and where macroeconomic uncertainty creates opportunities for crisis-oriented investors. Whether this thesis proves correct will likely determine the fund's performance over the next 2-3 years.
FAQ About John Paulson's Portfolio
Q: Why did Paulson reduce Madrigal Pharmaceuticals if it's his largest holding?
A: The 8.71% reduction appears to be profit-taking on a position that has likely appreciated significantly. Paulson maintains a 29.5% allocation to Madrigal, indicating continued conviction, but is trimming to lock in gains and reduce concentration risk. This disciplined approach prevents any single position from becoming an unmanageable risk.
Q: What does the 115.77% addition to Bausch Health signal?
A: This dramatic increase suggests Paulson sees exceptional value in Bausch Health at current prices. A 115.77% addition typically means he's roughly doubled his position, indicating this is now a core conviction holding. This move signals his belief that healthcare equities are significantly undervalued relative to their intrinsic worth.
Q: Why is Paulson so heavily concentrated in precious metals?
A: With nearly 40% of the portfolio in gold and mining companies, Paulson appears to be hedging against macroeconomic risks including inflation, currency debasement, and geopolitical uncertainty. This allocation reflects his crisis-investing mentality and suggests he may be anticipating market dislocations or economic challenges ahead.
Q: How can I track Paulson's portfolio changes?
A: ValueSense provides real-time tracking of Paulson's portfolio based on quarterly 13F filings. These filings are required disclosures for institutional investors managing over $100 million in equities, though they typically lag current holdings by 45 days. By monitoring these filings through ValueSense, you can identify Paulson's investment thesis and track his conviction levels as positions change.
Q: What's the significance of the portfolio shrinking from 15 to 10 positions?
A: The reduction to 10 positions represents a deliberate move toward maximum conviction investing. Rather than maintaining positions he's less confident about, Paulson is consolidating around his highest-conviction ideas. This suggests he's identified exceptional opportunities and is willing to concentrate risk to capitalize on them.
Q: How does Paulson's approach differ from typical hedge fund strategies?
A: Most hedge funds maintain 30-50+ positions to manage risk through diversification. Paulson's 10-position portfolio with 100% in top holdings represents an extreme concentration strategy. This approach works when the manager has exceptional analytical capabilities and deep conviction, but carries significantly higher risk if the thesis proves incorrect.
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