MSFT Earnings Preview: Which KPIs Matter Most
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Wall Street expects another solid headline print on July 30th with consensus looking for $73.8 bn in revenue (+14 % Y/Y) and EPS of ~$3.35
But as ever with Microsoft, the real story sits one layer deeper in the operating data. Below are the KPIs investors will scrutinise and a few chart ideas that make those trends obvious at a glance.
KPIs to watch:
- Azure constant‑currency growth
last qtr +33 %; Street sees 28–30 %
Why it matters: Each point of deceleration drops ~$300 m from FY‑26 revenue run‑rate; AI contributed 16 pts last quarter, does that hold?
- Intelligent Cloud operating margin
Why it matters: Cap‑ex is running at a record >$80 bn this year; margin tells us whether hardware spend is earning its keep.
- Office 365 commercial seats growth
Why it matters: Copilot bundling is the first real pricing lever in years; a rising ARPU with still‑healthy seat adds would be a bullish mix.
- LinkedIn Revenue and growth
Why it matters: Advertising cycle barometer; a return to positive‑mid‑single digits would imply improving macro spend.
Take‑away
Azure’s growth rate and margin trajectory will set the tone of the call; anything near a 30 % print with stable margins keeps the bullish AI narrative intact. The second‑tier tell is whether Copilot lifts Office ARPU faster than it slows seat growth. Finally, watch cap‑ex productivity: investors have largely forgiven the spending spree, but patience fades quickly if the incremental cloud revenue curve flattens.
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